Daily Joust!
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| 30 April 2009
How they got here…
Red Wings-
4-0 series win over CBJ
Ducks-
4-2 series win over SJ
Season Series…
3-1 Red Wings
Previous Playoff Meeting…
2007 Western Conference Finals (4-2 Ducks)
RLD ‘Playoff Formula’…
Red Wings- 54.76
Ducks- 43.31
RLD ‘Playoff Formula’ Predicts…
Red Wings in 6 or 7
Tale of the Tape…
Forwards-
Edge: Red Wings… The top lines are equal, but I like Detroit’s depth a bit better.
Defensemen-
Edge: Ducks… Both teams have great blue line units, but Anaheim’s back end was close to masterful against San Jose.
Goaltending-
Edge: Even… Osgood is experienced and played well vs. Columbus; Hiller was unbelievable against the Sharks – nothing fazed him.
Special Teams-
Edge: Red Wings… Detroit’s top-ranked PP makes the difference here.
Coaching-
Edge: Even… Both Babcock and Carlyle have won Cups in the last 2 years.
Experience-
Edge: Red Wings… A slight edge to the Wings as this entire group won the Cup together last spring.
Team X-Factors…
Red Wings-
Johan Franzen… The Mule continues to be a playoff force for Detroit. Last spring, he scored 13 goals in 16 games. He racked up 6 points in the 4 games against the Jackets, including the series-clinching goal late in Game 4. If the Ducks find a way to shut him down, the Wings could be in trouble. If Franzen continues to dominate the postseason, Detroit should move on.
Ducks-
Jonas Hiller… Hiller was amazing in Anaheim’s first round win over San Jose. He was a wall between the pipes, and smothered everything that came his way. But he doesn’t have much experience playing against these Wings, which may or may not be a bad thing… we saw what Giguere did in his playoff debut in ’03 against Detroit! Hiller has to stay composed and not get rattled when the Wings are storming the crease. He will not have a 1.64 GAA against Detroit like he did against the Sharks, so he’s gotta step up at critical times in each game.
Key Injuries…
Red Wings-
C Kris Draper (upper-body, expected to be ready for Game 1)
D Andreas Lilja (head, status for playoffs unknown)
Ducks-
F Petteri Nokelainen (upper-body, status for series unknown)
D Bret Hedican (back, not coming back anytime soon)
LW Brad Larsen (sports hernia, status for playoffs unknown)
Keys to the Series…
Red Wings-
1. Contain Anaheim’s top line… The Ryan/Getzlaf/Perry line is dynamite, but it’s the only consistent line for the Ducks offensively. So if Lidstrom and Rafalski can at least contain those 3, I like Detroit’s chances.
2. Consistent Ozzie… Chris Osgood was really good in the first 3 games of the first round, but then fell apart in Game 4 despite the win. The Wings need him to be sharp and on top of his game in this series.
Ducks-
1. Stay out of the box!… I cannot stress this one enough. Anaheim got pretty lucky that San Jose didn’t burn them more on the power play. But Detroit will take advantage of those opportunities. Pronger & company must play a disciplined series for the Ducks to pull another upset.
2. Win Game 5… This probably seems stupid, but let me tell you why I think this is big for Anaheim. I am expecting this series to be tied at 2 after Game 4. The last 7 times when the Red Wings were tied at 2 in a series, Game 5 was the tipping point. If they lose Game 5, they are 0-3 in those 7 series… if they win Game 5, they are 4-0. Case closed.
Why the Red Wings will win…
The Red Wings found that other gear against Columbus… but it was Columbus. They’re going to be tested against the red-hot Ducks. But with the depth up front and the experience on the back end, the Wings could be headed for their 3rd straight conference final. Detroit just might dominate this series if Anaheim plays undisciplined hockey.
Why the Ducks will win…
Anaheim is more battle-tested than the Wings in the playoffs so far. Their blue line is so deep with talent, and they can score like crazy. If the Ducks dethrone the champs, the top unit would be a big factor. The Ducks really can go toe-to-toe with Detroit. They’ll have to play disciplined hockey with another big series from Jonas Hiller.
PREDICTION… RED WINGS IN 6
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